FILM: Further FLOBY Analysis

*Posted February 15, 2009*

I always love when magazines and websites do the whole "Who Should/Will Win" because that gives them double the chance of getting the right answer. Plus, when people say things like "Meryl Streep should win but Kate Winslet will win" always seems like a slap in the face to the others voters. At the risk of insulting other members of my Academy, I'm going to play the same game with the best categories.

BEST ACTRESS -

WHO SHOULD WIN: It's worth mentioning that Katherine Smeagol is the only 2-time FLOBY nominee for good acting. Given that, I haven't seen 27 Dresses, so of course I don't feel that she should win. Since none of my nominees made it on the final ballot this year (Kate Winslet, Michelle Williams, Tea Leoni, and Jennifer Aniston were all snubbed), I'm going to go with the mega-underdog MILA KUNIS, who turned a role that's usually paint-by-numbers boring into something that's interesting and funny. It takes a lot to make me like a rom-com, but she was very good in Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

WHO WILL WIN: I'm not a big fan of restrained performances, and from what I saw of Benjamin Button (only the first half online), CATE BLANCHETT's role seems to be pretty slow-paced and reserved. Still, FLOBY loves big names, and since she was the lead actress in a universally well-liked movie, look for her to strike FLOBY gold this Sunday night.

BEST ACTOR -

WHO SHOULD WIN: This is the hardest category to pick this year. Frank Langella was fascinating as disgraced President Richard Nixon, and he took a character that is easily parodied and played him not as a cartoon, but as a clever man with a lot of fire left in his belly. Clint Eastwood was equally captivating (and I've never been a fan of his) as crotchety old vet Walt Kowalski. Most people remember that movie because of its shockingly humorous dialogue, but there is plenty of sadness in that role. I see this as a three horse race, and the one who should win in the end is HEATH LEDGER for taking the most hyped movie of the year and single-handely making it the most liked movie of the year. You can't say enough about his performance even though a lot has been said.

WHO WILL WIN: I'm pretty sure everyone saw and loved Dark Knight, so I can't see HEATH LEDGER being defeated. Maybe those who saw Gran Torino and Frost/Nixon could split the Langella/Eastwood vote, but the sheer popularity of the Joker character will be enough to carry him to victory.

BEST PICTURE -

WHAT WILL/SHOULD WIN: There isn't a bad movie in this year's group. I'm most surprised that Indy 4 is included in the mix because there isn't much middle ground in the reviews. People either found it incredibly entertaining or incredibly laughable. These are all movies I own/will own on DVD, and that's saying something. In the end, you can't deny that this is the DARK KNIGHT's year to shine, and it deserves all the praise in the world. Winning the FLOBY won't make up for being kept out of the Oscar race, but if it's any consolation, the Reader sucked.