*Posted July 3, 2008*
In case you do not watch Fox News, or you’re a left-wing loon, then you may not know how awesome Dick Morris is.A former advisor to President Clinton, Morris has since renounced the Clinton’s and become a political analyst for Fox.If you are interested in him, I would suggest checking out his website, dickmorris.com, and getting his free newsletters via email.It is well worth it.Recently Morris predicted where each state will go, McCain or Obama, in November.Check it out if you are interested, but I will try to handicap this race with a little help from Morris.
States that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 - Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming
From those states, Morris has Colorado, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio as toss-up states and even thinks that Nevada will probably go to Obama.With that said, I would give a slight lean to McCain in regards to Ohio.The blue-collar thing is too strong for the state, and Obama shows that he cannot connect to hard-working Americans.We will chalk up Colorado, Florida, and Missouri as pure toss-ups and give Nevada to Obama.
Probable Electoral Votes for John McCain - 222
States that went for the Democrats in 2000 and 2004 - California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin
If McCain picks Romney as his running mate, the tide might turn in Michigan as Romney is quite popular there.Pennsylvania may also be a toss-up with the blue-collar thing.PA, except for Philadelphia, will almost go entirely for McCain.I’ll put Michigan and PA as toss-ups.
Probable Electoral Votes for Barack Obama - 160
States that went Red one year and blue the other - Hawaii, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York
Morris has all six of these states likely going to Obama.I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to the socialist.Those six states equate to 66 electoral votes.
McCain - 222
Obama - 160+66+5(Nevada) = 231
Toss-Up States - Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, and Pennsylvania = 85
The magic number is 270.If McCain chooses Mitt Romney has his VP, you can put Michigan in the McCain column, giving him 239.If everything stays the same in November as it did in terms of red versus blue in 2000 and 2004, the total would be 269 for McCain and 269 for Obama.That would suck because Congress is run by the Democrats, and they would break the tie.If McCain chooses Romney and wins Michigan, as well as Ohio and Florida, the election will hinge on Pennsylvania.
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