Saturday, April 25, 2009

URBAN LEGEND: A Gambler’s Perspective

*Originally Posted May 8, 2008*

Even with the current playoff push of Pittsburgh Penguins coupled with another evitable losing season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, it is never too early for us gamblers to look ahead to the pinnacle of sports gambling, College and Pro Football.Our good friends at already have futures posted for the upcoming season on the college and pro gridiron.Let’s take a look.

The only odds up for College Football are the ones set to win the BCS Championship.Individual conference futures and odds will come up shortly before the season starts.Bodog lists their perceived top 30-40 teams in College Football.The current favorites are USC at 3/1, Florida, Georgia, OhioState, and Oklahoma all at 6/1.There is really not too much value here.USC and OhioState play each other in early September and the winner should have the inside track to the National Championship.Some long shots that have some value are ArizonaState at 80/1.They were in the top ten most of last year and get pretty much everyone back, but they also have USC on their schedule.Kansas at 65/1 was a top five team last year, but they lose a lot on defense even though most of their offense is back.My favorite is Texas Tech at 100/1, they get most of their starters back, and I believe they will give Oklahoma and Texas a run for their money in the Big 12 South.Last year’s champs, LSU, are 12/1 and PennState is currently at 50/1.

Bodog has a lot more options to play with on the NFL.The favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII in 2009 are the New England “Cheaters” at 10/3, the Indianapolis Colts at 15/2, and the Dallas Cowboys and San Diego Chargers who are both at 8/1.The longshots are the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders at 100/1 and the Atlanta Falcons at 150/1.I do not advocate any plays on either the favorites or the longshots, but there is some value to be found in other spots.The Minnesota Vikings are at 28/1 and are probably only a quarterback away from contending in the weak NFC.I also like the Tennessee Titans at 35/1.They made the playoffs last year, and I only see Vince Young improving as a pro.Like the Vikings, they are only a couple of play makers away from contending with the top of the AFC.Last years Super Bowl winner, the New York Giants are currently at 16/1, the Philadelphia Eagles are at 20/1, the Pittsburgh Steelers are at 25/1, and the Cleveland Browns are at 28/1.

You can always place bets on both the winner of the AFC and NFC as well as my personal favorite, Division winners.The current divisional favorites, are the Patriots(1/8), Steelers(1/1), Colts(8/13), Chargers(1/3), Cowboys(1/1), both the Packers and Vikings are tied in the NFC North at 7/4, Saints(5/4), and the Seahawks(5/6).Not too much value there.Plays with some value that I would advocate would be either the Jags at 5/2 or the Titans at 9/2 in the AFC South, the Broncos at 4/1 in the AFC West, the Giants at 9/4 or the Eagles at 7/2 in the NFC East, Carolina at 9/4 in the NFC South, and Arizona at 9/4 in the NFC West.

Remember it is never to early to start thinking about football gambling.Remember to bet with your head, not over it, and that the action is always the juice.

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