Tuesday, April 28, 2009

URBAN LEGEND: Untangling the BCS Mess

*Posted October 30, 2008*

1.Texas (8-0) - Texas is the clear number one at this point after beating now #4 Oklahoma and #9 Oklahoma State.Perhaps their toughest test of the season will be this Saturday night at Texas Tech.If they get through the rest of their schedule, they should have no problem beating an overrated Missouri team in the Big 12 Championship Game.Can Texas keep getting up for all of these big games?I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose to Texas Tech.If they win, they may be in for a letdown at Kansas on Nov. 15.I’ll call for them to lose one of those two games.

Prediction (11-1 or 12-1) = BCS Bowl

2.Alabama (8-0) - Most people realize that Nick Saban is one of the better coaches in college football, I even thought he was good with the Dolphins, but nobody expected him to turn Bama around this quickly.They are a legitimate National Title contender but do have a tough road ahead.They have to play at LSU and finish the regular season at home against in-state rival Auburn.Even with that, I think they win those two games.LSU is overrated and Auburn has zero offense.So it comes down to the SEC Championship game against either Florida or Georgia.In that game, I would favor either the Gators or the Bulldogs on that artificial turf fast track in the Georgia Dome.One loss for Bama, and it probably comes late.

Prediction (12-1) = BCS Bowl

3.Penn State (9-0) - The alma mater.The Ohio State win was a gritty, tough victory, and will probably propel Penn State to the National Title Game.I would call at Iowa a tough game, but the Lions have a week off to prepare for it.After that, they have a bad Indiana team and Michigan State, who can be beaten if you stop Javon Ringer.Stranger things have happened, but I’d be shocked if Penn State loses again.

Prediction (12-0) = BCS Title Game

4.Oklahoma (7-1) - Now this is where it gets interesting with these one loss teams.Oklahoma has not shown that their defense is any good.They have a home game against Texas Tech and travel to Oklahoma State.I call for them to lose one of those two games.

Prediction (10-2) = Out of the BCS?

5.USC (6-1) - They have a pretty easy schedule coming in.Unless they have a monumental letdown, they should win out.They could be primed to sneak into the National Title game, but does the winner of the Florida / Georgia game run the table in the SEC?I say they do and pass USC.USC blew it against Oregon State.

Prediction (11-1) = BCS Bowl, probably the Rose Bowl

6.Georgia (7-1) - Their big chance comes this weekend against Florida in Jacksonville.If they win that game, run the table in the SEC (which isn’t easy but not terribly brutal), and then beat Alabama in the SEC Title Game (they’ll have revenge on their minds), they should be able to leapfrog USC.Big ifs, but I’m going out on a limp and saying that they’ll do it.

Prediction (12-1) = BCS Title Game

7.Texas Tech (8-0) - All the offense in the world but are a little shaky on defense.They may be the key to my predictions as they have to play both Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and maybe Missouri in a Big 12 Title Game.They will hopefully knock off a top team, but the schedule is too tough to go through unscathed.

Prediction (10-2) = Out of the BCS?

8.Florida (7-1) - I hate Florida, and that’s one of the main reasons I picked Georgia in the big showdown this weekend.But if they beat the Dawgs, look for them to run the table and play Penn State in the title game.

Prediction (10-2) = Out of the BCS?

9.Oklahoma State (7-1) - I really like this team, but the schedule is just too tough.At Texas Tech and at home against Oklahoma.They should lose one more game.

Prediction (10-2) = Out of the BCS?

BCS Busters - #10 Utah, #11 Boise State, #13 TCU, #16 Ball State, #18 Tulsa

Utah and TCU play each other.Even if Utah wins they still have to play BYU at the end of the year.I’ll call for Utah to squeak into the BCS, but it wouldn’t surprise me if both Utah and TCU are out by the end of the year.The game of note is TCU at Utah on Nov. 6.

Boise has some tricky games coming up.At Nevada and home against Fresno State.I want to say they’ll lose one of those, but they should be favored in the rest of their games.

Ball State is a good story, but I don’t see them running the table.The MAC is an underrated conference.

Tulsa has a better chance of winning out than Ball State, but what are the chances of them winning out and leapfrogging all these teams to get into the top 12?Not good

Notre Dame?Usually if ND loses 2 games or less they get a BCS Bowl.Right now they are 5-2 and play Pitt this weekend and have USC at the end of the year.BCS?No Chance

BCS Title Game - Penn State vs. Georgia

Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Either Utah, TCU, or Boise State

Orange Bowl - Texas vs. ACC (it’s looking like Florida State)

Fiesta Bowl - Either Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas Tech, or Florida vs. Big East (could be up to 4-5 teams, but I’ll say the WVU/Pitt winner)

A lot can happen, UCLA over USC two years ago, Pitt over WVU last year, but this is just one man’s opinion.The last month of the season should definitely be fun and interesting.

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